East India, West India and Bangladesh will remain Sri Lanka’s key markets for transhipment containers, accounting for an estimated 89.9% of throughput in 2050,
According to the National Port Master Plan completed in March 2019 by NIRAS mtbs and funded by the Asian Development Bank and Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction, the base case demand for transhipment via Colombo port is forecast to be 5.8 million TEUs by 2025 and to 6.4 million TEUs by 2030 and 12.6 million TEUs by 2050. The high case transhipment demand forecast is estimated at 7.3 million TEUs by 2025 and 8.5 million TEUs by 2030 and to 21 million TEUS by 2050. The base case demand for domestic containers (import-export) is 2.1 million TEUs by 2025, 2.5 million TEUs by 2030 and 3.2 million TEUs by 2050; the high case scenario is 2.2 million TEUs by 2025, 2.7 million TEUS by 2030 and 4 million TEUS by 2050. The Master plan predicts, annual transshipment volumes are estimated to increase from 3.89 million TEU in 2015 to 12.67 million TEU in 2050.
“A dip in volumes can be observed around 2030, due to the expected implementation of several competitive projects. Due to increasing direct trade shares and increasing pressure from competing transshipment hub groups, growth of transshipment volumes is expected to decelerate after 2035.”
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