Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Decline of interest rate could squeeze insurance dividends

Kunj Behari Maheshwari

Partner at Willis Towers Watson Actuarial Advisory, Kunj Behari Maheshwari said that actuaries may have to account for changes in value given the new accounting regime. He was concerned with high volatility and relatively high rates in the government securities market. Maheshwari was speaking at the South Asian Actuarial Conference on November 13 at the Cinnamon Lakeside Hotel. Willis Towers Watson is a leading provider of actuarial services in the region.

He said that given the change in accounting standards and the age of contracts there might be some adjustments to be made given a decline in interest rates. He said “This is one of the important topics in Sri Lanka that you need to start thinking about immediately. The products that were priced a long time ago are still priced in the Net Present Value regime.

The investment outlook tended to be still lower than the investment outlook that we are pricing in. In the current regime the level of the risk free rates are anywhere between 10 or 13 percent. It is volatile. It can move between a 100-200 basis points. If we are timing our liabilities effectively at the discount rate, what is the type of investment outlook that has been priced in there?”

“When you are doing an interest rate shock yes you do have enough capital. The assets in the business exist to pay the shock scenario. But what does that mean to the shareholder return? If that 12 percent was to go down to 9 or 8 percent you will still be solvent and the regulator doesn’t mind but the shareholder will be very angry. That is the line of the sight within the regime that we tend to forget.”

Maheshwari outlined the goal of an actuary measuring risk in an insurance firm. He said “What needs to happen in order to wipe out your net worth? Net worth is a very small number relative to the number of risks you are covering. What you will quickly realize is that event is very imaginable. That event isn’t a remote situation that will not arise. As an insurance provider the events that can happen are very plausible.”

“We are providing an important service to the society. Are we doing it in a manner that jeopardizes our business that it jeopardizes the public at large? How well are you as an actuary providing that data input and that managerial information feed? “

“More importantly how much are you charging? The job of the actuary is to calculate the premium. Are you pricing that risk appropriately and that is the question that the CEO should be asking. “

He added “We are starting to take on a lot of investment risk. An actuary should be pricing that risk as well.

If the shareholder wanted to invest into the equity market or high yielding bonds they could invest it themselves.”

Maheshwari said that Sri Lanka insurance products are relatively expensive to India in terms of benefits. He said that the lack of financial instrumentation prevents more complex insurance investments by local players.

Author:

0 comments: