Sunday, April 26, 2020

COVID-19 and future of Sri Lanka

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is hurting people without considering their racism, religion or anything.

There are two kinds of countries in the world; Developed countries and Developing countries. However, developed countries are suffering from this than developing countries which explain the dangerous of it. Now, we are in the 21st century. Most of the people believe that most of the countries are practicing the advanced technology and the most innovative practices. There is a question mark on how this happened while practicing such techniques and why it can’t be controlled. Some people believe that this virus came from animals, while some are predicting that this was exposed by some of people purposefully. However, still there is not proven facts behind this disease.

Sri Lanka is a country where this disease is not much spread widely at the moment. The Sri Lankan Government has taken some preventive actions together with Medical officials and other relevant parties to control the situation. A major step has taken to force curfew all over the island to control people. However, having all the actions, number of infected patients are going up day by day though it is controllable. But, it is unpredictable what will happen tomorrow when looking into the world. However, it has been highlighted couple of challenges when controlling the sickness within the country.

Maintaining People Discipline

People discipline is one of the major challenges to control the situation. The curfew has been forced with the intention of controlling people’s discipline and stop people moving place to place. According to WHO’s guidelines and Sri Lanka’s medical officials’ one of recommendation is Stay Home and Self quarantine. However, according to Police reports, it has been arrested over 15,000 people who have violated the curfew law which is a bad result and it shows people commitment is not enough to control the infection. May be there are some valid reasons behind this situation. Government should figure out and look at those valid reasons. However, the COVID-19 doesn’t care any reason whether valid or not. Hence, maintaining people’s discipline is a must now with bearing all the difficulties.

Country Economic Impact

Sri Lanka is a developing country. The country is mostly depending with taxes, exports and imports, foreign exchange, foreign loans / debts and funds. Having this pandemic situation in all over the world, it has been badly affected in the country since most of the operations have been stopped in many areas and most of the companies are closed these days owing to this pandemic. However, these companies should manage their some of the expenses while paying employee salaries, though they are not working. There are some developed countries who can fund to companies to look after their expenses. But, it is not possible for many developing countries including Sri Lanka. Hence, this may be another major hit to all the industries and country as well.

Further, Lower overall domestic consumer demand will have a negative impact on production and employment. The drop in consumer demand may have a lower effect in manufacturing, where companies could, if they have access to credit, build up stocks of finished goods rather than reduce production and lay off staff.  However, the effects on the small-scale services sector are likely to be dramatic.

Receiving foreign remittance or exchange from Sr iLankan employees who are working in foreign countries was a major portfolio in Sri Lanka economy. They have pumped millions of dollars into Sri Lanka’s economy annually. It was really helpful to maintain foreign exchange reserves and make some investments within the country. However, owing this situation, there is a possibility dropping down foreign job market to locals. Then, another issue may raise on maintaining foreign exchange reserves.

According to the World Bank, Sri Lanka’s economic growth continues to be adversely affected by shocks. An unprecedented political controversy last couple of years led to a subdued growth of 3.2 percent in 2018. Growth rebounded in the first quarter of 2019 to 3.7 percent (year-on-year) thanks to relatively benign weather that revived agriculture and related industry sectors. However, the aftermath of the 2019 April terrorist attacks that killed over 250 people has been affected to dropped down the tourism industry. Having this COVID-19 pandemic, the drop down will continue further.

All the manufacturing companies also are in a dangerous zone since they need to find new buyers if they lose their foreign buyers due to this pandemic and expecting economic crisis. Further, they may have to face another issue to find sufficient raw materials. Due to this disease, there is a possibility to ban importing some raw materials into the country. Then, will occur another problem to maintain their marginal profit and cover up day to day expenses. Hospitality, Tourism and Airline industries will be the biggest unfortunate sectors due to this situation.

Look after country people

In this country, there are different kind of income level people and different kind of employees. Income level, simply we can categorize as high class, middle class and lower class or poor. Sri Lanka government has a responsibility to look after middle class and lower class people. Specially, poverty ratio is quite high in estate sector than other sectors, though they are contributing to national economy directly. The government is funding to look after them in various ways. Even though, due to this crisis, the poverty ratio definitely will go up and it will be another burden issue to the government. If the government is not able to find more income sources, they may increase taxes. Then, prices of goods will go up automatically and it will be affected to increase inflation ratio and poverty ratio in the country.

Furthermore, now there is a possibility to rise the unemployment ratio. There are some people who are getting involved with Agriculture industry, which is around 30% of total employed persons. However, there are some employees who are working for daily wages or outsourced labour basis or as trainees or as contractual employees. Their jobs are more risky now, however permanent employees can be secured their jobs since it is difficult to drop them out according to labour law.  Cutting down costs, including laborers is the only option which available to company owners and board of directors at the moment if they don’t have any other alternatives.

The country faced another unfortunate situation in last year as well, which is the Easter Sunday terrorism attack and it was also badly affected to the country’s economy. After this incident, while putting some efforts to grow the economy, occurred another unfortunate incident (COVID-19 pandemic) before completing 12 months of the Easter Sunday attack. As a developing country, it is very difficult to afford such incidents. However, after identifying the expecting above key challenges, as a country, there is an opportunity to think about possible ways to reverse back the country to normalize. Further, we have learnt many good lessons while facing to such incidents and now the time has come to test those good lessons and make it a reality. Still, the country has the opportunity to build the nation for future. It is possible and positive. Only thing is needed; a clear vision and creating the opportunities within the country. There are some certain possible options which can be implemented.

Enable the Innovative  and Creativity Practices

Now the world is in the 21st century. Everything is rapidly changing and updating. Knowledge is updating, technology is updating and human needs are changing day by day. When the world is changing, the country is also should absorb such changes. Otherwise, it is difficult to survive in the world since the country is depending with some other countries when fulfilling needs. It doesn’t mean that the country needs to copy and paste here. If we have the capability and potential skills, it is possible to manufacture. As a country, we have learnt many lessons these days. It has been seen within the last couple of days that there are capable youngsters who have the innovative and creative abilities. They can produce some certain machines and products at a lower cost though, it is costly when importing from other countries. Getting to know that the country has such capability and not able to show their talent is a matter of sadness, however it will be a good turning point to create a platform to the talented people.

 The debatable concern is, these talented youngsters are available in the country since the past and what action country rulers have taken to polish their talents and give the opportunity. Anyhow, now this concern has come to the stage. Hence, now it is necessary to take this concern positively and create a good setup and invest to identify and polish the innovative and creative abilities. Further, it is necessary high level involvement to define a forum to show their talents. It is a good remark to save the country money and open our market to the world instead of bringing every item from foreign countries by investing huge money.

Design a Manufacturing based Economy

Now, the country has a situation where it is difficult to import some certain items from some certain countries to fulfill human needs and raw materials for manufacturing. It may be a difficult situation for some certain industries. However, now it is time to look at the possibility to do more manufacturing. When looking to the below table, it is easy to identify the discrepancy of our economy and people’s contribution.

In Sri Lanka 25.5% of employed population is contributing to the Agriculture sector, though its contribution to GDP is 7.9% which is very low amount when compared to their commitment. Here, the main concern is the Manufacturing sector contribution to GDP. Service sector contribution is higher than manufacturing. However, still there is a possibility to increase Manufacturing contribution while limiting import some certain items and encouraging investors to manufacture every possible product within the country. As an example, it is possible to enhance manufacturing Canned Fish and Salt instead of importing from other countries. There are more ways. Very recently it has been proven that some medical equipment can be manufactured at a lower cost instead of importing with paying higher amount. Such talent is available within the country.

All the possible manufacturing in locally should ban importing and it will be more beneficial to the country; to increase GDP and create more job opportunities. The requirement is identifying such talents and investors and facilitate them with making a proper plan. It is absolutely necessary now to discourage different political agendas. Also, it is needed to encourage Industry sector than service sector by giving more priorities.

Look after Agriculture industry with giving more facilities

Further, when looking to above table, it is debatable that why Agriculture contribution is not much when putting more efforts by more people. Sri Lanka is an Agricultural country since the past. Geographically also, more spaces are utilized for the agricultural industry. But, their earnings are not much due to several reasons; climate changes, lack of facilities (Fertilizer, seeds, water an ect), lack of market, lack of storage, not available a good price, lack of technology and education.

There are many people who have not well educated and moved to agriculture field. It is necessary to get them involved in productive supply with educating and facilitating them. When looking for the history of Sri Lanka, the country had a nice irrigation system and good production. When considering the number of people who got involved with Agriculture, there is an opportunity to double the production if the market and such facilities are available. There are some agricultural products which are imported from other countries. It should be stopped immediately by making arrangements to produce within the country since it is possible to grow locally. Unfortunately, within last two decades, it has been seen that some certain agricultural products including rice were imported from other countries. It should be avoided by creating more facilities including a good market to farmers.

Also, having enough foods within the country is a good sign to face some disasters like COVID 19. Another demanding topic is nowadays being promoted traditional foods and medicine. It has been tested and proven that such traditional foods and medicine have good context to maintain a healthy life. Under agriculture, there is another opportunity to cultivate and promote such traditional healthy foods within the country.

Creating more opportunities for Education and Research & Development

This is another very important area where needs to look at very seriously. Sri Lanka’s education system should be updated as it can be competed with the world. In the world, education is rapidly updating by adding more values. Education is one symbol which can be measured the development of the country. When comparing to the world, the country’s education system is needed to update with adding more theoretical and practical aspects. When passing out from school or university, the students should be able to apply such theory. Otherwise, it is useless. While developing the education system, needs to create more opportunities for Research and Development (R&D). This is another area where can find more solutions for remaining issues.

Most of the developed countries are opening more opportunities for R&D by offering more facilities. This is required to identify challenges, human needs and find feasible solutions.

Set up a Strong Health System

Having a strong health system is another indicator which shows the development of the country. Sri Lanka is available free health system for its people as a result of people are paying taxes for the government. People’s health and well-being is really important for survival of the country. If the country loses its talents due to lack of health system, there will be negative implications. When obtaining health service from the private sector, it is quite expensive and most of the people are not in a position to spend more money for it. Hence, enhancing facilities in government hospitals is very important and it will be helpful to reduce the number of deaths due to several illnesses and maintain people good health conditions. 

Increase the productivity

This is another good indicator which can move forward the country. Novel technology is available in the world and they are manufacturing products very fast manner. Having the global threat, it is necessary to enhance the productivity level in every industry. After facing incidents of Easter Sunday attack and this COVID-19 disease, most of the companies are thinking how can they survive and face to coming challenges. Thinking about enhancing the productivity is the best way now. If they can produce with minimizing resources or if they can produce more with remaining resources, they will be able to win the game. But, it is needed such techniques, technology, and talents within the organizations. The country can look at the world and absorb the best practices without further delaying. It is possible.

Effective public service

This is another debatable topic in Sri Lanka. Some of people believe that Sri Lanka public service is not efficient. However, the government has to use some parameters to measure and enhance the productivity level. There are many government institutes and semi-government institutes. Some are making profits. Some are making losses. Some are providing services without expecting profits. Even though, now it is necessary to convert loss making government entities to profit making entities. The government is not able to depend with peoples’ taxes or debts and funds every day. It should be limited. Otherwise, increasing country debts year on year is not healthy. Having this situation, the debt issuing countries and institutes will be able to control the country with forcing to implement unfair rules and regulations if the country is not considered seriously.

Now there is a situation where a government is in a difficult situation to afford government expenses. Anyhow, they can’t increase more taxes to people or obtaining debts continuously. Due to unnecessary political interference to public companies within last three to four decades, profit making government entities converted to loss making entities which is a very sad situation. The government should understand the facts and give more attention to reverse back all the loss making government entities.

Sustainability and Contingency Management

According to new global trends and current context, paying more attention to sustainability and contingency management is needed. Sustainability means that a process or state can be maintained at a certain level for as long as is wanted. Therefore, sustainability is made up of three pillars: economic, social and environment. When looking to the recent past, there is a trend of up surging natural disasters and decreasing natural resources in the world. Hence, it is necessary to look at implementing such sustainability and contingency management techniques. As an example, the country is not in a position to depend with water or coal to get supplied electricity every day. Most of the countries are generating solar power to their national supply which is possible to Sri Lanka as well. As a country, everyone has a responsibility to look after society and the environment. Now it is high time to limit chemical for agricultural activities and look at the possibility of increasing usage of carbonic fertilizers.

When introducing whatever, it should not harm to the environment or society or the economy. If someone ignores the sustainability, it is difficult to survive. Furthermore, contingency management is a famous topic in the business world now. Every organization should expect to face for an emergency situation and need to make plans accordingly. If an organization does not prepare for an emergency situation, they will not be able to face for an emergency and it will affect to such organizations badly during an emergency situation. In the business world, this concept is called as “Business Continuity Management / BCM”. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare for an emergency and train employees on how to react during such incident. In the world, uncertainty is really high now.

Creating more job opportunities for female

Out of the total population in Sri Lanka, Male percentage is 48% and female percentage is 52% now. It seems female percentage is going up year on year. However, when looking into the employment ration gender wise, it is 65% of Male and 35% of Female in 2018/19 according to Department of Census and Statistics. According to the figures, more female people are searching more jobs and they don’t have enough job opportunities in the job market. Hence, there is an opportunity to create more job opportunities to female with empowering them and get involved directly to the National Economy. However, it is necessary to have a proper plan from higher authorities.

Maintaining the Political Stability

This is another issue which Sri Lanka is facing during last two three decades. Due to this political instability, most of the foreign investors are not intending to invest in Sri Lanka.

All the Srilankans have the responsibility to select capable members to the Sri Lanka’s parliament and allow them to drive the country to move forward. Amending the constitution is necessary to maintain the political stability within the country. Also, whoever coming to the parliament, they have a huge responsibility to maintain the cost and increase the country’s productivity and efficiency by making possible and strong strategies.

In conclusion, COVID-19 will be a main threat to Sri Lanka Economy and its future. At the moment, all country people have a responsibility to maintain self-discipline and support the government officials to control the pandemic. The government together with other officials are doing a great job with facing to such challenges to minimize the disaster. Even though, remaining issues and coming challenges are clear and now it’s time to create a platform identify the potentiality and feasibility to track such challenges and make clear and practical strategies.  The talent is available, leadership is available, space is available, the technology is available, knowledge and skills are available. But, it is needed positive attitude, clear vision and additional commitment from top to bottom to make it a reality.

Then, it is possible to convert this country as a developed country from developing stage. It is absolutely possible and yes we can. 

The writer (MLHRM, PgD. in HRM, BSc (Business Mgt.) Special, Chartered MCIPM, PMHRP, AITD (SL), PhD (Reading)) is a HRM Consultant and can be contacted on udaya.rathnayake1230@gmail.com

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