Sunday, September 3, 2017

Foreign investors marked a turnaround this week

The Bourse continued to lose grounds as the ASPI decreased by 18.63 points (or 0.29%) to close at 6,390.74 points, while the S&P SL20 Index also decreased by 4.61 points (or 0.12%) to close at 3,685.96 points.

Turnover and market capitalization

JKH was the highest contributor to the week’s turnover value, contributing LKR 0.77Bn or 23.86% of total turnover value.

Aitken Spence followed suit, accounting for 15.43% of turnover (value of LKR 0.50Bn) while Commercial Bank contributed LKR 0.40Bn to account for 12.27% of the week’s turnover.

Total turnover value amounted to LKR 3.24Bn (cf. last week’s value of LKR 2.64Bn), while daily average turnover value amounted to LKR 0.81Bn (+53.46% W-o-W) compared to last week’s average of LKR 0.53Bn.

Market capitalization meanwhile, decreased by 0.29% W-o-W (or LKR 8.43Bn) to LKR 2,897.75Bn cf. LKR 2,906.18Bn last week.

Liquidity (in value terms)

The Diversified Sector was the highest contributor to the week’s total turnover value, accounting for 42.4% (or LKR 1.38Bn) of market turnover.

Sector turnover was driven primarily by JKH & Aitken Spence which accounted for 92.58% of the sector’s total turnover.

The Banking ,Finance & Insurance Sector meanwhile accounted for 38.29% (or LKR 1.24Bn) of the total turnover value with turnover driven primarily by Commercial Bank, Sampath Bank, Amana Takaful & HNB which accounted for 79.51% of the sector turnover.

The Beverage, Food & Tobacco Sector was also amongst the top sectorial contributors, contributing 7.39% (or LKR 0.24Bn) to the market driven by Nestle which accounted for 94.77% of the sector turnover.

Liquidity (in volume terms)

The Diversified Sector dominated the market in terms of share volume, accounting for 10.18% (or 24.81Mn shares) of total volume, with a value contribution of LKR 1.38Bn.

The Banking, Finance & Insurance sector followed suit, adding 4.36% to total turnover volume as 10.63Mn shares were exchanged.

The sector’s volume accounted for LKR 1.24Bn of total market turnover value. The Hotels & Travels Sector meanwhile, contributed 3.40Mn shares (or 1.40%), amounting to LKR 0.01Bn.

Top gainers and losers

Adam Investments was the week’s highest price gainer; increasing 25.0% W-o-W from LKR 0.50 to LKR 0.40.

Blue Diamonds gained 25.0% W-o-W to close at LKR 0.50 while Citrus Hikkaduwa gained 14.0% W-o-W to close at LKR 14.70. Sathosa Motors (+13.5% W-o-W) and Lankem Developments(+12.8% W-o-W) were also amongst the gainers.

Amana Life was the week’s highest price losers, declining 13.3% W-o-W to close at LKR 1.30 while CIT (13.1% Y-o-Y), Taprobane (-12.1% W-o-W) & Nuwara Eliya Hotels(-11.2% W-o-W) were also amongst the top losers over the week.

Foreign investors closed the week in a net selling position with total net outflows amounting to LKR 0.43Bn relative to last week’s total net inflow of LKR 0.25Bn (-274.7% W-o-W).

Total foreign purchases increased by 25.6% W-o-W to LKR 1.24Bn from last week’s value of LKR 0.99Bn, while total foreign sales amounted to LKR 1.68Bn relative to LKR 0.74Bn recorded last week (+126.1% W-o-W).

In terms of volume, JKH & Teejay Lanka led foreign purchases while Aitken Spence & Commercial Bank led foreign sales.

In terms of value, JKH & HNB led foreign purchases while Aitken Spence Holdings and Nestle led foreign sales.

Point of view

The ASPI continued to lose grounds by 18.63 points (-0.29% W-o-W) to end at 6,390.74 points with retail activity remaining mostly flat with some profit taking as policy concerns over Inland Revenue Bill buoyed market sentiment1.

Turnover value however rose by 22.8% W-o-W to LKR 3.24Bn, supported mostly by institutional participation in crossings which accounted for 30.88% (or LKR 1.00Bn) of the total turnover value. Counters including JKH, Nestle, Amana Takaful, Commercial Bank and Sampath garnered significant HNI interest among crossings, with large transactions in these counters contributing to 28.53% of the week’s total market turnover that helped drive the rebound in turnover. Consequently, week’s average daily turnover value stood at LKR 0.81Bn over the week, compared to LKR 0.53Bn in the week before.

Meanwhile, foreign investors marked a turnaround ending the week on a net selling position of LKR 0.43Bn after 30 consecutive weeks of foreign buying, mostly attributable to the LKR 0.50Bn transaction in Aitken Spence.

In terms of foreign purchases, JKH topped foreign purchases while Aitken Spence topped foreign sales (both in terms of value and volume of shares).

We expect activity in the following week to be determined by policy direction toward the Inland Revenue Bill expected to be presented in the parliament on September 6th.

Broadly positive June quarter earnings

~54% of the 276 corporates reported positive earnings in the Quarter ending June’17 where total market earnings reached LKR 53.9Bn relative to LKR 49.5Bn (up ~8.8%) reported by the same companies in June’16. Banks Finance & Insurance companies along with Diversified, Beverage Food & Tobacco, Manufacturing, Construction and Telecommunication led the growth in June quarter earnings.

Gains in Banks, Finance & Insurance (+16% Y-o-Y) companies were led by counters such as COMB, SAMP, HNB, LOLC while gains in Diversified (+29% Y-o-Y) were led by stocks such as JKH, MELS, FLCH, VONE & HHL. Growth in Food & Beverage sector earnings (+16% Y-o-Y) was led by CTC, NEST, CARG, CCS, CTEA while DIAL, SLTL fueled Telecom sector earnings (+0.4% Y-o-Y). Healthcare sector earnings (+26% Y-o-Y) were driven by ASIR, LHCL, CHL, NHL, AMSL. Amid the Y-o-Y decline in June quarter performance of Manufacturing corporates such as LLUB, TJL & RCL earnings fell 32% Y-o-Y while Construction sector earnings declined (-63% Y-o-Y) despite Y-o-Y gains in stocks such as AEL & LDEV.

Land & Property and Power & Energy Sectors were also among sectors which recorded negative performance.Meanwhile,trailing 12M earnings, was LKR 263.78Bn, cf. LKR 216.39Bn (+21.9% Y-o-Y) recorded by the total market for the corresponding period last year while the market PER consequently remained largely flat at ~ 11.18x.

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