Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka, (PUCSL) the electricity sector regulator their recent report “ SRI LANKA’S ELECTRICITY SUPPLY 2020 AND BEYOND” says that the proposed plant both thermal and renewable additions in Least Cost Long Term Generation Expansion Plan (LCLTGEP) 2018-37 should be conducted according to the CEB implementation plans presented at the Sub-Committee on Power and Renewable Energy meeting held on August 10, 2017.
Transmission system should be timely expanded according to the new plant additions expected the report says.
Continuous fuel supply to all thermal plants should be ensured throughout the period.
Even with recommended capacity additions, timely measures should be taken to avoid energy deficits that are likely to occur in the first half of 2018 and also in March and August in 2019 and March 2020, under dry conditions.
The report also says that the base demand forecast for 2016 has steadily decreased since 2006. The actual demand of 2016 had been 14,301 GWh, while the forecast demand for 2016 in 2006 is 19,067 GWh.
Percentage wise the figure indicates a 33% of over-forecast in 2006, 13% over-forecast in 2011, and 6% under-forecast in 2015, for the actual demand of 2016.
Actual contribution from oil based generation in 2016 is 4,529 GWh, which is 6 times the contribution from oil based generation for 2016 envisaged in 2006.
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