Monday, January 1, 2018

ASPI hits a 3-week high

The Bourse moved to the positive territory as the ASPI increased by 45.52 points (or +0.72%) to close at 6,369.26 points, while the S&P SL20 Index also increased by 21.81 points (or +0.60%) to close at 3,671.72 points.

Turnover and market capitalization

Sampath Bank was the highest contributor to the week’s turnover value, contributing LKR0.16Bn or 15.23% of total turnover value.

Hemas Holdings followed suit, accounting for 12.44% of turnover (value of LKR0.13Bn) while Chevron Lubricants contributed LKR0.13Bn to account for 12.42% of the week’s turnover.

Total turnover value amounted to LKR1.02Bn (cf. last week’s value of LKR1.74Bn), while daily average turnover value amounted to LKR0.25Bn (-26.76% W-o-W) compared to last week’s average of LKR 0.35Bn.

Market capitalization meanwhile, increased by 0.70% W-o-W (or LKR 20.08Bn) to LKR 2,899.29Bn cf. LKR 2,879.21Bn last week.

Liquidity (in value terms)

The Banking, Finance & Insurance Sector was the highest contributor to the week’s total turnover value, accounting for 38.84% (or LKR 0.40Bn) of market turnover.

Sector turnover was driven primarily by Sampath Bank, Amana Bank, Commercial Bank, HNB[NV] & Sanasa Dev. Bank which accounted for 83.91% of the sector’s total turnover.

The Manufacturing Sector meanwhile accounted for 19.06% (or LKR 0.19Bn) of the total turnover value with turnover driven primarily by Chevron Lubricants which accounted for 65.17% of the sector turnover.

The Diversified Sector was also amongst the top sectorial contributors, contributing 18.66% (or LKR 0.19Bn) to the market driven by Hemas Holdings & JKH which accounted for 94.16% of the sector turnover.

Liquidity (in volume terms)

The Banking, Finance & Insurance sector dominated the market in terms of share volume, accounting for 53.24% (or 31.03Mn shares) of total volume, with a value contribution of LKR 0.40Bn.

The Diversified Sector followed suit, adding 7.31% to total turnover volume as 4.26Mn shares were exchanged.

The sector’s volume accounted for LKR0.19Bn of total market turnover value. The Manufacturing Sector meanwhile, contributed 3.85Mn shares (or 6.61%), amounting to LKR0.19Bn.

Top gainers and losers

PC Pharma was the week’s highest price gainer; increasing 100.0% W-o-W from LKR 0.10 to LKR 0.20. SMB Leasing[NV] gained 50.0% W-o-W to close at LKR0.30. Odel Plc(+22.5% W-o-W) and Tea Smallholder (+17.3% W-o-W) were also amongst the gainers.

Brac Lanka finance was the week’s highest price loser, declining 30.7% W-o-W to close at LKR24.20 while Office Equipment(-14.4% Y-o-Y), Resus Energy (-9.9% W-o-W) & Browns(-9.3% W-o-W) were also amongst the top losers over the week.

Foreign investors closed the week in a net buying position with total net inflows amounting to LKR 0.11Bn relative to last week’s total net inflow of LKR 0.05Bn (+99.7% W-o-W).

Total foreign purchases decreased by 64.7% W-o-W to LKR 0.37Bn from last week’s value of LKR 1.06Bn, while total foreign sales amounted to LKR 0.27Bn relative to LKR 1.00Bn recorded last week (-73.5% W-o-W).

In terms of volume Chevron & Sampath Bank led foreign purchases while Hemas Holdings & LOLC Finance led foreign sales.

In terms of value Sampath Bank & Chevron led foreign purchases while Hemas Holdings & Browns led foreign sales.

Point of view

Equity markets hit a 3-week high this week, gaining ~46 points week-on-week to reverse the trend of declining W-o-W returns since early-November.

Although activity levels remained largely dull in the holiday-shortened week, the benchmark Index hit a 3-week high of 6369.26 points as the Central Bank held policy rates steady as widely anticipated.

Despite this, overall activity levels remained largely muted with both institutional/HNI and retail investors opting to remain on the sidelines. Institutional/HNI investors accounted for ~32% of total market turnover, cf. to the average of ~35-40% recorded this year.

Retail investors also continued to remain on the sidelines yet again this week, continuing a trend that has dominated markets through most of 2016 and 2017.

Due in large part to the steady foreign flows and local HNI/institutional activity this year though, average daily turnover levels in 2017 has averaged Rs.0.92Bn, ~25% higher than the average of Rs.0.73Bn recorded in 2016 but ~31% lower than the average of Rs.1.06Bn recorded in 2015.

Maintaining the trend that has dominated emerging and frontier market equities in 2017 meanwhile, foreign investors remained net buyers (Rs. 0.11Bn) once again this week, reversing the net selling position it recorded early in the week.

Markets in the week ahead are likely to consolidate at the current levels in the week ahead as investors return to markets post the Christmas/New year holidays.

CBSL holds rates steady for sixth time

As widely expected, the CBSL held policy rates steady (SDFR=7.25%; SLFR= 8.75%) at its 8th and final monetary policy meeting for the year.

The move marks the sixth consecutive time that the CBSL has held policy rates steady since its 25Bps hike in Mar'17.

The monetary authority cited lower-than-anticipated Q3 GDP growth (3.3% Y-o-Y vs. 4.0% Y-o-Y in Q2'17) along with contained core inflation levels, declining private credit demand and broadly stable LKR as supporting its decision.

The CBSL noted meanwhile, that despite near term growth prospects remaining subdued, it anticipates a recovery in 2018 due to a continuous surge in exports and investments induced by FDIs.

The monetary authority also noted that although high food prices stemming from supply disruptions could cause headline inflation levels to remain at relatively elevated levels in the immediate future, inflation is expected to return to desired level by Q1'18.

The CBSL also noted that it expects year-end gross official reserves to improve to $7.8Bn, helped by receipts such as the 4th tranche of the IMF's EFF, the first installment from the divestment of Hambantota Port ($292Mn) and net dollar purchases by the CBSL amounting to $1.7Bn.

The monetary authority also noted that during the year, it has been able to reverse the declining trend in gross official reserves and the negative BoP balances during 2015 and 2016, and that it expects a significantly large BOP surplus during 2017.

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